A Game of Cribs

According to a Washington Examiner article, the fertility rate in America has fallen well below sustainable population rates. That’s probably good news for those concerned about the environment and overpopulation. Or is it?

My wife and I are vegan, and we’ve noticed that in general vegans tend to be anti-child. That is not surprising; it fits with their tendency to be concerned about environmental and over-crowding issues. But if the total fertility rate for vegans is below 2.1, which is considered the point of population sustainability, it means they will have to convince a lot of people to become vegans to replace those that are dying off.

Likewise in religion. An article in SciLogs takes a look at reproductive rates by religion in the US, based on 2003 data. They found this:

According to this data, only Muslims, Hispanic Catholics, Black Protestants, and Fundementalist Protestants are experiencing positive populatio growth from birth rate alone. This has likely shifted downward, at least among some demographics, since the recession as suggested by the Washington Examiner article.

Why does this matter? Perhaps it doesn’t. But I have been thinking a great deal about society and culture, and the perpetuation of both. There are two ways to perpetuate society or any group or demographic: birth and recruitment. As long as the combined rate of group growth exceeds 2.1, that group is sustainable. If you want to increase the size of that group you are going to have to raise that rate above 2.1. This is one way to take over the world, albeit very slowly.

The point of this post is not to raise a red flag about any particular group, but to call attention to a point of strategic interest. Any group that does not realize positive growth will die out eventually. If American culture is worth protecting we need to consider finding ways to keep our population growth a net positive. Immigration likely accomplishes this, at least for now. But immigration will likely lead to a dilution of culture rather than net growth unless our attitudes toward immigrant assimilation changes. If it takes immigration to keep our population growth positive, and yet immigrants are not changing to adopt US culture then our culture is still in decline, and we are becoming…something else as a country and society.

This also assumes that just because a child is born into a particular group they will continue to identify with and reflect that group throughout its life. That is not a given, by any means, so this also increases the importance of recruitment.

One way to recruit–or avoid recruitment away from a group–is through indoctrination. Schools, for example, can be used to convince children to identify with a group other than what their parents choose, or they can be used to reinforce the efforts of those parents to keep their children in their group. While it can be argued that schools are intended to teach knowledge and life skills, not ideologies, the truth is that its difficult for schools to not attempt to shape a child’s ideology in addition to teaching skills. When their efforts support the parents’ efforts the group will be stronger; when they run contrary to one another, the group may suffer non-death losses.

The other means of recruiting, then, is actively trying to change the minds of adults, which can be very difficult. Not impossible, but difficult, especially where culture is concerned.

So it seems evident in the ongoing “culture wars” both in America and around the world that, while only part of the equation, any group that starts out with a higher fertility rate, is going to start with an advantage–an advantage that in time can shift the balance between groups or cultures if not checked by other means. And if that group also is effective at recruitment (or defending against counter-recruitment), the balance will shift even more quickly.

In general, it appears that fertility rates among Western nations is in decline–already below 2.1 and falling. Could it be that the fall of Western Civilization begins with an empty crib?